Monday Market Review: November 3, 2025

Weekly Summary

Economic data from the U.S. government remained on hold, while private sources showed housing prices flattening, and continued challenged consumer sentiment. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-percent, as markets already expected.

Equities were mixed globally, with gains and losses dispersed by region. Bonds were largely down in the U.S. upon higher interest rates, and mixed abroad, with a stronger dollar. Commodities were also mixed, with oil prices little-changed.

 What to know about the markets:

U.S. stocks saw gains in the large cap area, while small caps fell back, which largely appeared to be interest rate related, were boosted by what seemed to be progress on a U.S.-China trade agreement and loosening of tensions at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia. By Thursday, a 1-year trade truce was announced. While temporary, this included a reduction of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, as well as China’s suspension of rare earth mineral export controls, and their resumed purchasing of U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans. Mid-week, the FOMC decision was seen as a positive, which reversed a bit as Chair Powell noted that a December cut was “far from certain,” pulling back on dovishness a bit. However, by the end of the week, despite strong revenues (from firms like Meta), hints of strong spending on AI for the next quarter and into 2026 had investors on edge a bit with returns on investment yet to be determined, although sentiment for the AI concept remains one of the primary drivers of sentiment. The U.S. government remains closed, now having reached a full month, and threatening the record 35 days from the 2018-19 shutdown, and is now assumed to perhaps trim a full percent off of Q4 GDP growth, although that could be made up in Q1-2026.

Conditions were mixed by sector, with 3% gains in technology (Apple and Nvidia, primarily, with the latter becoming the first $5 trillion market cap company) and consumer discretionary (Amazon and Tesla), while materials and defensive areas consumers staples and utilities led on the downside with negative returns of -4%. Communications stocks saw a unique mix, with gains in Alphabet offset by a decline in Meta but ended relatively flat on net. Real estate also declined by over -4%, with interest rates ending the week higher.

Insofar as earnings were concerned, per FactSet, 64% of firms in the S&P 500 have now reported Q3 earnings, with 83% showing a positive earnings surprise and 79% a positive revenue surprise. The blended year-over-year growth rate has ticked up to 10.7%, and at a pace to end just under the 12% growth of Q2. Leadership and improved expectations continue to be led by technology and utilities, but also financials, while communications earnings growth has turned negative. Expectations for Q4 have remained steady, having crept up a few tenths to 7.6%, also above-average.

Foreign stocks were mixed, in keeping with a stronger U.S. dollar, with gains in Japan and the emerging markets offset by declines in Europe and the U.K. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan both met last week as well, and kept interest rates on hold for now, with more of a balance between growth and inflation, and importantly, not being subject to the employment mandate as in the U.S. The Bank of Canada also cut rate by a quarter-percent, although they suggested that their cutting was just about finished, with inflation near to where they wanted it. In EM, results were similar to recent weeks with South Korea seeing gains along with strength in U.S. technology stocks, as well as in Brazil and Mexico, which offset declines in China. Stocks rose by 40% in frontier market Argentina, as President Milei’s party performed more decently than expected, helping sentiment in that region in search of longer-term financial stability.

Bonds fell back last week with a hawkish response during the FOMC news conference creating some doubt around the December meeting. Floating rate bank loans were the sole group seeing gains, while investment-grade corporates declined nearly a percent. Foreign bonds were mixed, in keeping with respective hedged exposure to the dollar, which gained a percent for the week.

Commodities were little-changed on net for the week, aside from a rise in natural gas prices due to colder winter weather forecasts, with slight gains in agriculture offset by a pullback in precious metals, as global trade risk abated a bit. Crude oil prices fell -1% last week to $61/barrel, with little news relative to the previous week.

 Our Weekly Economic Notes:

Notes key: (+) positive/encouraging development, (0) neutral/inconclusive/no net effect, (-) negative/discouraging development.

As the U.S. government shutdown continued, economic data released was still minimal, with missing reports on third quarter U.S GDP, personal income and spending, PCE inflation (including the core PCE used for the Fed’s policy target), durable goods orders, and jobless claims.

(0) The FOMC decided to cut interest rates, which was no surprise, but the dissents in each direction showed the continued divergence in opinion on the committee. At the Fed’s press conference, Chair Powell acknowledged that conditions “haven’t changed much” since the September meeting, despite the fewer data points available, but also acknowledging the committee was able to rely on some alternative indicators for their assessment. With downside risks to labor having risen the “balance of risks” has shifted, with steps toward a more neutral policy stance looking appropriate. However, in committee, there were “strongly differing views on how to proceed in December,” and “a further reduction in the policy rate” is not a “foregone conclusion,” in fact, “far from it.” It was noted that their focus on inflation for an extended period of time, but labor market conditions had deteriorated further than they had expected in recent months, causing the change in tone to a balance between the two mandates. Overall, the meeting was taken more hawkishly than some expected.

The quantitative tightening discussed also includes reinvesting mortgage-backed securities back into Treasury bills only, which helps inch the Fed out of the mortgage market and works to adjust the composition of the portfolio shorter in duration, more similar to the composition of the overall market. In recent months, runoff of Fed securities has caused rates in money markets to rise a bit, which is what they expected, but don’t want to encourage.

While general conditions appear to still be decent, falling rates do provide liquidity when a variety of markets are more richly priced than they used to be, which has been seen as some as adding fuel to the fire. AI was mentioned in the context of economic growth, but “wasn’t key driver” in the discussion.

(0) The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index fell by -0.6% on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis in August, but rose 0.2% after adjustment, relative to expectations of a -0.1% decline. Chicago was the only city seeing a gain on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, while San Francisco gained nearly a percent after seasonal adjustment. On a trailing 12-month basis, the 20-city index rose 1.6%, led by strength in New York City, Chicago, Cleveland, and Boston, all up around 5% or more. Seven cities experienced declines, the most pronounced being a -3% drop in Tampa and -2% each in Miami and Phoenix. As has been the case in recent months, the Sun Belt areas so popular during the pandemic have fallen back in favor of Northern urban centers. Also notably, the national index’s gain over the year is below that of inflation, which runs counter to the strong ‘real’ gains in recent prior years.

(0) The FHFA house price index rose 0.4% in August, an improvement on the no change in July, after revisions. For the month, the Middle Atlantic region (NY/NJ/PA) led with a gain of 1.2%, while prices in the Pacific (WA/OR/CA/AK/HI) fell by -0.8%. Over the past 12 months, the national index rose 2.3%, which ranged from a high of 6.3% in the Middle Atlantic region and low of -0.6% in the Pacific states. This was exactly half the pace of the prior year ending in Aug. 2024. As noted in the narrative of the Case-Shiller report, FHFA data has followed a similar pattern, albeit being less urban in focus.

(0) The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence for October fell by -1.0 point to 94.6, above the expected 93.4. While the present situation rose by 2 points, expectations for the future fell by -3 points. The labor differential ticked up from the lowest level in over four years, due to respondents saying ‘jobs are plentiful’ up a point. Inflation expectations for the coming year ticked up by 0.1% to 5.9%, remaining twice as high as actual inflation readings. The Conference Board acknowledged the lack of movement for the index, although consumers appeared more pessimistic about “future job availability” as well as “future business conditions.” They also noted that, in the consumer write-in comments, mentions of “tariffs” directly fell a bit, but references to “prices” and “inflation” remained high as primary topics being top of mind.

Have a good week.

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Centered Financial, LLC is a registered investment adviser offering advisory services in the State of California, Utah, Texas and in other jurisdictions where exempted. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the techniques, strategies, or investments discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. To determine which strategies or investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial adviser prior to investing. Any discussion of strategies related to tax or legal planning is general and is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult appropriate tax and legal professionals for recommendations pertaining to your specific situation.

Sources: Ryan M. Long, CFA; Director of Investments; FocusPoint Solutions, Inc.

FocusPoint Solutions, American Association for Individual Investors (AAII), Associated Press, Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, FactSet, Financial Times, First Trust, Goldman Sachs, Invesco, JPMorgan Asset Management, Marketfield Asset Management, Morgan Stanley, MSCI, Morningstar, Northern Trust, PIMCO, Standard & Poor’s, StockCharts.com, The Conference Board, Thomson Reuters, T. Rowe Price, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve, Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post. Index performance is shown as total return, which includes dividends. Performance for the MSCI-EAFE and MSCI-EM indexes is quoted in U.S. Dollar investor terms.

The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness. All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product. FocusPoint Solutions, Inc. is a registered investment advisor.